Dislocations and Adaptions

In our book and many different papers over the years, Patrick and I have talked about the evolution of C/ETRM software in terms of technology adoption curves and market dislocations. Some of you might be familiar with out model? The general idea is that the technology adoption curve for E/CTRM software keeps on getting ‘dislocated’ by sudden changes in the industry – Enron, Regulations, deregulation of markets, and so on.       The impact of these market dislocations is to stall the natural growth of the adoption curve creating a set of stranded products from smaller vendor who cannot afford to adapt while creating a new and larger market/adoption curve for an enhanced version of CTRM. Some products and vendors survive and transition while there is an opportunity for new entrants in the form of start ups and opportunists from nearby markets – banking, risk management, treasury etc.   The model helps to explain why there remain over 100 vendors in the market despite many being very small, highly focused and regional in nature. It helps explain why the top 2-3 vendors haven’t yet saturated the market and why build is more often a solution than one might imagine
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