“Looking at the 2020s, we believe that similar structural forces to those which drove commodities in the 2000s could be at play,” Goldman argues. (“2021 Commodities Outlook: REVing up a structural bull market”, Nov. 18, 2020) That was Goldman Sachs earlier in January. Those comments piqued a great deal of interest and our pick up of that story in Reuters drove a lot of web traffic. Then, this week, Marko Kolanovic, the highly regarded quantitative analyst at JPMorgan also predicted a Commodity supercycle and as an article in MarketWatch stated, “The commodity upswing, and oil CL.1, -0.55% move in particular, has started, and will be driven by the post-pandemic recovery, ultraloose monetary and fiscal policies, a weak dollar DXY, 0.17%, stronger inflation, as well as the impact of environmental policies on demand and supply.v“We believe that the tide on yields and inflation is turning, which will pose a major risk to multiasset portfolios,” he added. This will be the fifth so-called supercycle of the last 100 years, following the one that began in 1996 and peaked in 2008, he said. But is it? Is this just a market maker’s hype? Not everyone agrees with Goldman and JP Morgan. Macrobusiness’s David Lewellyn-Smith isn’t on board… continue reading
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