Geopolitical changes are occurring more quickly than analysts can assess their long‑term impacts. Changes of market prices and logistics-related costs are largely driven by geopolitics, making them challenging to forecast. These uncertainties are the result both short-term events, for example, the potential expansion of current conflicts, and long term developments, such as questions about the US dollar’s role as a global reserve currency or the impacts of climate change. Today’s global media is dominated by military conflicts or trade wars and their threat of market disruption, while the transition to net zero seems to have been pushed to the background. The risk of a larger military conflict in the Middle East, for instance, could have profound effects on oil, oil products, LNG, and other commodities, leading to increased price volatility and uncertainty about transportation routes. This in turn influences how companies approach risk management in general and which ‘what‑if’ scenarios they consider. Meanwhile, this uncertainty as well as long‑term change cause a deeper reshaping of the requirements for CTRM and related solutions. New political alliances such as the BRICS+ are challenging the US dollar’s dominance, creating entirely new mechanisms for settlement outside of the purview of western eyes, and fostering… continue reading