The Year of Geopolitical Risk

The commodities business is risky enough but this year, it has gotten even riskier. BREXIT, Russian sanctions, renewal of Iranian sanctions, trade wars, Syria, Venezuela, and more. All of these ‘events’ have added more uncertainty and risk to trading, moving and managing commodities. As I scan the agenda for the upcoming ComRisk Forum 2019, it is plain to see that these new risks are of concern and will occupy much of the agenda including an entire presentation on BREXIT and its impact on risk management (although whether BREXIT will actually have happened by May 21st is anyone’s guess right now!). The keynote presentation looking back at the last 12-months of commodities market will also focus on trade wars, the global geopolitical regime, and commodity prices. Interestingly, the final presentation on the opening morning will look at crisis management, as if we didn’t have enough so-called crises to deal with at the moment! The entire program of ComRisk has been shaped by recent events and much time and focus will be spent on these new operational risks along with the traditional price, credit, and regulatory risks. I will be moderating a panel on CTRMs and market risk which should be interesting… continue reading
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